Making cities mental health friendly for adolescents and young adults.

Urban life shapes the mental health of city dwellers, and although cities provide access to health, education and economic gain, urban environments are often detrimental to mental health1,2. Increasing urbanization over the next three decades will be accompanied by a growing population of children and adolescents living in cities3. Shaping the aspects of urban life that influence youth mental health could have an enormous impact on adolescent well-being and adult trajectories4. We invited a multidisciplinary, global group of researchers, practitioners, advocates and young people to complete sequential surveys to identify and prioritize the characteristics of a mental health-friendly city for young people. Here we show a set of ranked characteristic statements, grouped by personal, interpersonal, community, organizational, policy and environmental domains of intervention. Life skills for personal development, valuing and accepting young people's ideas and choices, providing safe public space for social connection, employment and job security, centring youth input in urban planning and design, and addressing adverse social determinants were priorities by domain. We report the adversities that COVID-19 generated and link relevant actions to these data. Our findings highlight the need for intersectoral, multilevel intervention and for inclusive, equitable, participatory design of cities that support youth mental health.

Valoraciones sobre el proceso de prevención de enfermedades profesionales, a propósito de dos novedades editoriales / Appraisals about the Process for Preventing Professional Diseases. A Propose of two Editorial Updates

En el volumen 37 del último número de la Revista Cubana de Medicina General Integral perteneciente al año 2021, se identifican entre las novedades editoriales dos valiosos trabajos1,2 que motivan una valoración sobre la significación del proceso de prevención de enfermedades profesionales (PPEP), en las condiciones actuales del desarrollo socioeconómico del país. La baja tasa de natalidad y el envejecimiento poblacional, unido a la generación de nuevas formas de gestión económica que incluyen a trabajadores por cuenta propia, usufructuarios de tierras, pequeñas y medianas empresas, en ocasiones carentes de los tradicionales sistemas de seguridad y salud en el trabajo, operados por profesionales especializados, elevan la significación del mandato previsto en el artículo 69 de la Carta Magna, en términos de adopción de medidas adecuadas para la prevención de accidentes y enfermedades profesionales.3 En ese sentido, López y otros2) revelan, mediante revisión científica, las implicaciones del especialista en Medicina General Integral que se desempeña como médico de familia, con el diseño y ejecución de las medidas preventivas referidas en la cita anterior. Estos autores realizan un análisis integrador del Programa del Médico y Enfermera de la Familia y el Programa Nacional de Salud de los Trabajadores, con énfasis en las actividades de salud ocupacional, cuyo resultado constituye, en opinión de la remitente, un referente para reflexionar de manera creadora sobre el mejoramiento del...(AU)

Deforestation within breeding ranges may still drive population trends of migratory forest birds in the East Asian Flyway.

The East Asian Flyway (EAF) is the most species diverse of global flyways, with deforestation in its migratory landbird's non-breeding range suspected to be the main driver of population decline. Yet range-wide habitat loss impact assessments on EAF migratory landbirds are scarce, and seasonal variation in habitat preference of migratory species further increases the complexity for conservation strategies. In this study, we reviewed population trends of migratory forest breeding birds in the EAF along with their seasonal habitat preference from the literature and assessed the impact of forest cover change in species' breeding and non-breeding ranges on population trends. We found that 41.3% of the bird species with trend data available are declining, and most have higher forest preference in the breeding season. Despite 93.4% of the species experienced deforestation throughout their annual cycle, forest cover change in the non-breeding range was not identified as the main driver of population trend. However, forest cover change in species' regional breeding range interacts positively with the degree of breeding season forest preference in predicting population trends. We therefore stress that regional breeding habitat protection may still be important while following the call for cross-border collaboration to fill the information gap for flyway conservation.

Lower infant mortality, higher household size, and more access to contraception reduce fertility in low- and middle-income nations.

Although average contraceptive use has increased globally in recent decades, an estimated 222 million (26%) of women of child-bearing age worldwide face an unmet need for family planning-defined as a discrepancy between fertility preferences and contraception practice, or failing to translate desires to avoid pregnancy into preventative behaviours and practices. While many studies have reported relationships between availability/quality of contraception and family planning, infant mortality, and fertility, these relationships have not been evaluated quantitatively across a broad range of low- and middle-income countries. Using publicly available data from 64 low- and middle-income countries, we collated test and control variables in six themes: (i) availability of family planning, (ii) quality of family planning, (iii) female education, (iv) religion, (v) mortality, and (vi) socio-economic conditions. We predicted that higher nation-level availability/quality of family-planning services and female education reduce average fertility, whereas higher infant mortality, greater household size (a proxy for population density), and religious adherence increase it. Given the sample size, we first constructed general linear models to test for relationships between fertility and the variables from each theme, from which we retained those with the highest explanatory power within a final general linear model set to determine the partial correlation of dominant test variables. We also applied boosted regression trees, generalised least-squares models, and generalised linear mixed-effects models to account for non-linearity and spatial autocorrelation. On average among all countries, we found the strongest associations between fertility and infant mortality, household size, and access to any form of contraception. Higher infant mortality and household size increased fertility, whereas greater access to any form of contraception decreased fertility. Female education, home visitations by health workers, quality of family planning, and religious adherence all had weak, if any, explanatory power. Our models suggest that decreasing infant mortality, ensuring sufficient housing to reduce household size, and increasing access to contraception will have the greatest effect on decreasing global fertility. We thus provide new evidence that progressing the United Nation's Sustainable Development Goals for reducing infant mortality can be accelerated by increasing access to family planning.

The interaction effects of automation and population aging on labor market.

Automation and population aging are two major forces that will shape the nature of works in the future. However, it is not clear how these forces will interact with each other and affect the labor market. This paper examines the interaction effects of computerization and population aging on the labor market. We found that computerization and population aging have large and statistically significant effects on employment growth but not earnings growth. Also, their interaction terms are statistically significant only for employment growth but not for earnings growth.

Study on temporal and spatial differentiation of biocapacity in Shenyang from a multi-scale perspective.

Biocapacity of a region exhibits spatial differences owing to the limitations of regional scale and natural conditions. Based on the multi-scale perspective, we comprehensively studied and analyzed the temporal and spatial differences of the biocapacity of a region in an attempt to establish the groundwork for optimizing urban development and its utilization framework. By adopting the ecological footprint model along with multi-scale difference evaluation method, the municipal and county scales are incorporated into a unified analysis framework in this paper, thereby facilitating the exploration of the temporal and spatial differences in the biocapacity of Shenyang-a city in China-from 2005 to 2019. The results demonstrated that: 1) At the municipal scale, the biocapacity per capita fluctuated between 1.35 hm2/person and 2.22 hm2/person. It revealed an "up-down-up" trend, which appeared consistent with the Kuznets cycle; at the county scale, the biocapacity depicted spatial differences, while those of downtown and surrounding districts/counties developed a two-level ascending hierarchical structure. 2) The time series of footprint size and depth first ascended and then declined, and can be classified into four types: closed type, inverted U-type, S-type, and M-type. Among them, S-type and M-type have the phenomenon of over-utilizing the stock capital. 3) For a long time, the regional difference of biocapacity has mostly dwelt on two scales with an evident scale effect, and the biocapacity of Liaozhong District was the worst.

Dynamics of internal migration in Bangladesh: Trends, patterns, determinants, and causes.

INTRODUCTION: Internal migration is essential to understand the population dynamics and the multifaceted relationship between population and development of a nation. In Bangladesh, the study of international migration is more frequent due to its socioeconomic importance and data availability. However, the study of internal migration is less frequent as there lie complexities in measuring internal migration, and data are less available. Thus, this paper aimed to explore the dynamics of internal in Bangladesh. DATA AND METHODS: We utilized data from the Bangladesh Population and Housing Census 1991-2011. The number of internal migrants was estimated using the United Nations Manual on Methods of Measuring Internal Migration- Manual VI. District-wise lifetime and net internal migration rate were the dependent variables where several socioeconomic variables were used as independent variables. The correlation and the stepwise multiple linear regression analysis were employed. RESULTS: Dhaka, Gazipur, Narayanganj, and all the Divisional cities have the highest in-migration rate, whereas the northern and southern districts of Bangladesh have the highest out-migration rate. The regression model showed that activity rate appeared to be the strongest predictor (ß = 0.419, P<0.001) of net migration for 2011, followed by city corporation (ß = 0.275, P<0.01) and poverty rate (ß = -0.246, P<0.01). However, the lifetime internal migration rate was 9.8% in 2011. The pooled model (1991-2011) for lifetime internal migration showed that activity rate (ß = 0.408, P<0.001), population density (ß = 0.386, P<0.001), literacy rate (ß = 0.341, P<0.001), and city corporation (ß = 0.139, P<0.01) were the significant factors of internal migration. Marriage, looking for a job, employment/business, education, and natural calamities were the reasons for internal migration. DISCUSSION AND CONCLUSION: The destinations of migrants are few developed and urbanized cities which needs particular attention in policy planning. If the current migration trends continue, few cities will have an excessive population, which will increase density and pollution, thereby decreasing living standards. Thus, along with comprehensive urban planning, decentralization of government and private institutions must be ensured. Since the rural to urban migration rate is high, the findings recommend more development and concentration in the rural area. Finally, education, training, and work opportunities for migrants should be safeguarded in the area of origin.

Instrumento para identificar barreras ambientales percibidas por personas mayores en el contexto cubano / An Instrument for Identifying Environmental Barriers Perceived by Elderly People in the Cuban Context

Introducción: El envejecimiento de la población cubana trae aparejado un aumento de la discapacidad. En este sentido la Clasificación Internacional del Funcionamiento, de la Discapacidad y la Salud recomienda el diseño de instrumentos de medición que identifiquen los factores ambientales que afectan la funcionalidad. Objetivo: Describir las propiedades psicométricas de un instrumento de medición diseñado para identificar barreras ambientales percibidas por las personas mayores en el contexto cubano en cuanto a la validez de apariencia, de contenido y constructo. Métodos: Se realizó un estudio de desarrollo tecnológico. Se consultó a un grupo de expertos para la validación de apariencia y contenido, y se calculó el coeficiente de validez de contenido insesgado y corregido. Para la validez de constructo se calculó el análisis factorial de los componentes principales. Resultados: El coeficiente de validez de contenido insesgado y el corregido mostraron cifras superiores a 0,80, considerado como bueno. El análisis factorial arrojó siete factores que explican las dimensiones exploradas en la definición que se pretende medir. Conclusiones: El instrumento diseñado mostró un alto acuerdo entre los expertos en cuanto a la validez de apariencia y contenido. Los indicadores evidenciaron que el instrumento tiene una estructura multidimensional que se corresponde con el constructo que se pretende medir(AU)

Introduction: The aging of the Cuban population brings about an increase in disability. In this sense, the International Classification of Functioning, Disability and Health recommends the design of measurement instruments to identify environmental factors affecting functionality. Objective: To describe, in terms of face, content and construct validity, the psychometric properties of a measurement instrument designed to identify environmental barriers perceived by elderly people in the Cuban context. Methods: A technological development study was carried out. A group of experts was consulted for the face and content validation, while the unbiased and corrected content validity coefficient was calculated. For construct validity, principal component factor analysis was calculated. Results: The unbiased and corrected content validity coefficient showed figures above 0.80, considered as good. Factor analysis yielded seven factors that explain the dimensions explored in the definition intended to be measured. Conclusions: The designed instrument showed high agreement among the experts in terms of face and content validity. The indicators showed that the instrument has a multidimensional structure that corresponds to the construct that it is intended to measure(AU)

Well beyond the 60s? The impact of a pandemic on the growth of the older population / Muito além dos 60? Impacto de uma pandemia na dinâmica de crescimento da população idosa

Contrary to expectations that the first decades of the 21st century would experience an increase in lived time, the 2020s cast doubts on the future of old age. The Brazilian population is expected to increase until 2030, when it will reach its maximum, with a total of approximately 215 million inhabitants. A trend of population decline was already in progress and had already been documented, but the pandemic accelerated this process. This study describes a set of projections for the older Brazilian population. The projections were elaborated using the main components method, whose advantages are the possibility of separately projecting the behavior of the three demographic variables (fertility, mortality, and migrations) and obtaining results disaggregated by sex and age groups. Birth data for 2018, 2019, and 2020 suggest a 3.51 and 5.28% decrease in total births between 2018 and 2019 and 2019 and 2020, respectively. Preliminary data for 2021, which indicate the continuation of this trend between 2020­2021, show a 2.32% reduction in the number of births. The hypotheses raised for the mortality patterns, if proven to be accurate, suggest a life expectancy of 72.8 years for men and 76.2 years for women at the final period of the projection, resulting in gains of 4.6 and 2.0 years, respectively. Despite these gains, the levels obtained in 2019, pre-pandemic, would be reached by the male population only between 2035 and 2040.

Contrariando expectativas de que as primeiras décadas do século XXI seriam um tempo de expansão do tempo vivido, os anos 2020 apontam dúvidas com relação ao futuro da velhice. A população brasileira deverá crescer até 2030, quando se projeta que atingirá o seu máximo, com um total de aproximadamente 215 milhões de habitantes. Uma tendência de redução populacional já era documentada e estava em curso, mas a pandemia acelerou o seu movimento. Este artigo apresenta um conjunto de projeções para a população brasileira e idosa. Para a sua elaboração, utilizamos o método das componentes, cujas vantagens são: (a) projetar, isoladamente, o comportamento de cada uma das três variáveis demográficas ­ fecundidade, mortalidade e migrações ­ e (b) obter resultados desagregados por sexo e grupos de idade. Os dados de nascimentos para 2018, 2019 e 2020 apontam para uma diminuição deste total de 3,51% entre 2018 e 2019 e de 5,28% entre 2019 e 2020. Os dados preliminares de 2021, que apontam para uma continuação dessa tendência entre 2020 e 2021 demonstram redução de 2,32% no número de nascimentos. As hipóteses feitas para os padrões de mortalidade, se verificadas, apontam para uma expectativa de vida de 72,8 e 76,2 anos no final do período da projeção, o que resultaria em ganhos de 4,6 e 2,0 anos, para homens e mulheres, respectivamente. Apesar desses ganhos, os níveis obtidos em 2019, pré-pandemia, seriam alcançados pelos homens entre 2035 e 2040.

Metapopulations with habitat modification.

Across the tree of life, organisms modify their local environment, rendering it more or less hospitable for other species. Despite the ubiquity of these processes, simple models that can be used to develop intuitions about the consequences of widespread habitat modification are lacking. Here, we extend the classic Levins metapopulation model to a setting where each of n species can colonize patches connected by dispersal, and when patches are vacated via local extinction, they retain a "memory" of the previous occupant-modeling habitat modification. While this model can exhibit a wide range of dynamics, we draw several overarching conclusions about the effects of modification and memory. In particular, we find that any number of species may potentially coexist, provided that each is at a disadvantage when colonizing patches vacated by a conspecific. This notion is made precise through a quantitative stability condition, which provides a way to unify and formalize existing conceptual models. We also show that when patch memory facilitates coexistence, it generically induces a positive relationship between diversity and robustness (tolerance of disturbance). Our simple model provides a portable, tractable framework for studying systems where species modify and react to a shared landscape.

Apoyo social y uso de espacios de vida en la persona mayor en el contexto rural / Social Support and the Use of Life Spaces by Older Adults in the Rural Context

Introducción: El uso de espacios de vida cobra interés investigativo sobre el envejecimiento, por ser una medida de movilidad y participación social, pues refleja factores físicos, psicosociales y ambientales necesarios para el funcionamiento independiente. Objetivo: Identificar los factores asociados con el apoyo social y uso de los espacios de vida en el contexto rural. Métodos: Estudio descriptivo, con 193 adultos mayores de 60 años, del municipio de Samaniego, departamento de Nariño. Se describió el comportamiento del uso del espacio de vida y su relación con variables demográficas, cognitivas, emocionales y psicosociales mediante modelos de regresión lineal y logística. Resultados: La escala LSA presentó una media de 21,68 (DE = 18,6), se observó correlación con la variable edad (Rho = -0,15, p = 0,042) y género (d = -0,05; IC 95 por ciento -0,35 a 0,23). Hubo relación directamente proporcional pero baja con el Test Minimental (Rho = 0,04, p = 0,580) y Yesavage (Rho = -0,13, p = 0,064). Con la escala apoyo social, hubo correlaciones bajas en apoyo emocional (Rho = 0,19, p = 0,009), instrumental (Rho = 0,13, p = 0,062), interacción social positiva (Rho = 0,23, p = 0,001) y apoyo afectivo (Rho = 0,16, p = 0,027). Conclusión: Las características psicosociales y demográficas influyeron en la utilización que el adulto mayor rural hace de su espacio vital(AU)

Introduction: The use of life spaces is gaining research interest regarding aging, as it is a measure of mobility and social participation, insofar it reflects physical, psychosocial and environmental factors necessary for independent functioning. Objective: To identify the factors associated with social support and the use of life spaces in the rural context. Methods: Descriptive study carried out with 193 adults aged over 60 years, from the Samaniego Municipality, Nariño Department. The behavior of the use of life spaces and its relationship with demographic, cognitive, emotional and psychosocial variables were described using linear and logistic regression models. Results: The LSA scale presented a mean of 21.68 (SD=18.6). A correlation was observed with the variable age (Rho=-0.15, P=0.042) and gender (d=-0.05; CI 95 percent: -0.35 to 0.23). There was a directly proportional but low relationship with the Minimental test (Rho=0.04, P=0.580) and Yesavage (Rho=-0.13, P=0.064). With the social support scale, there were low correlations in emotional support (Rho=0.19, P=0.009), instrumental support (Rho=0.13, P=0.062), positive social interaction (Rho=0.23, P=0.001), and affective support (Rho=0.16, P=0.027). Conclusion: The psychosocial and demographic characteristics influenced on how rural older adults make use of their life spaces(AU)

COVID-19 and the value of safe transport in the United States.

We investigate the connection between the choice of transportation mode used by commuters and the probability of COVID-19 transmission. This interplay might influence the choice of transportation means for years to come. We present data on commuting, socioeconomic factors, and COVID-19 disease incidence for several US metropolitan areas. The data highlights important connections between population density and mobility, public transportation use, race, and increased likelihood of transmission. We use a transportation model to highlight the effect of uncertainty about transmission on the commuters' choice of transportation means. Using multiple estimation techniques, we found strong evidence that public transit ridership in several US metro areas has been considerably impacted by COVID-19 and by the policy responses to the pandemic. Concerns about disease transmission had a negative effect on ridership, which is over and above the adverse effect from the observed reduction in employment. The COVID-19 effect is likely to reduce the demand for public transport in favor of lower density alternatives. This change relative to the status quo will have implications for fuel use, congestion, accident frequency, and air quality. More vulnerable communities might be disproportionally affected as a result. We point to the need for additional studies to further quantify these effects and to assist policy in planning for the post-COVID-19 transportation future.

The crucial role of genome-wide genetic variation in conservation.

The unprecedented rate of extinction calls for efficient use of genetics to help conserve biodiversity. Several recent genomic and simulation-based studies have argued that the field of conservation biology has placed too much focus on conserving genome-wide genetic variation, and that the field should instead focus on managing the subset of functional genetic variation that is thought to affect fitness. Here, we critically evaluate the feasibility and likely benefits of this approach in conservation. We find that population genetics theory and empirical results show that conserving genome-wide genetic variation is generally the best approach to prevent inbreeding depression and loss of adaptive potential from driving populations toward extinction. Focusing conservation efforts on presumably functional genetic variation will only be feasible occasionally, often misleading, and counterproductive when prioritized over genome-wide genetic variation. Given the increasing rate of habitat loss and other environmental changes, failure to recognize the detrimental effects of lost genome-wide genetic variation on long-term population viability will only worsen the biodiversity crisis.

Understanding longevity in Hong Kong: a comparative study with long-living, high-income countries.

BACKGROUND: Since 2013, Hong Kong has sustained the world's highest life expectancy at birth-a key indicator of population health. The reasons behind this achievement remain poorly understood but are of great relevance to both rapidly developing and high-income regions. Here, we aim to compare factors behind Hong Kong's survival advantage over long-living, high-income countries. METHODS: Life expectancy data from 1960-2020 were obtained for 18 high-income countries in the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development from the Human Mortality Database and for Hong Kong from Hong Kong's Census and Statistics Department. Causes of death data from 1950-2016 were obtained from WHO's Mortality Database. We used truncated cross-sectional average length of life (TCAL) to identify the contributions to survival differences based on 263 million deaths overall. As smoking is the leading cause of premature death, we also compared smoking-attributable mortality between Hong Kong and the high-income countries. FINDINGS: From 1979-2016, Hong Kong accumulated a substantial survival advantage over high-income countries, with a difference of 1·86 years (95% CI 1·83-1·89) for males and 2·50 years (2·47-2·53) for females. As mortality from infectious diseases declined, the main contributors to Hong Kong's survival advantage were lower mortality from cardiovascular diseases for both males (TCAL difference 1·22 years, 95% CI 1·21-1·23) and females (1·19 years, 1·18-1·21), cancer for females (0·47 years, 0·45-0·48), and transport accidents for males (0·27 years, 0·27-0·28). Among high-income populations, Hong Kong recorded the lowest cardiovascular mortality and one of the lowest cancer mortalities in women. These findings were underpinned by the lowest absolute smoking-attributable mortality in high-income regions (39·7 per 100 000 in 2016, 95% CI 34·4-45·0). Reduced smoking-attributable mortality contributed to 50·5% (0·94 years, 0·93-0·95) of Hong Kong's survival advantage over males in high-income countries and 34·8% (0·87 years, 0·87-0·88) of it in females. INTERPRETATION: Hong Kong's leading longevity is the result of fewer diseases of poverty while suppressing the diseases of affluence. A unique combination of economic prosperity and low levels of smoking with development contributed to this achievement. As such, it offers a framework that could be replicated through deliberate policies in developing and developed populations globally. FUNDING: Early Career Scheme (RGC ECS Grant #27602415), Research Grants Council, University Grants Committee of Hong Kong.

Evaluation of Population-Level Changes Associated With the 2021 US Preventive Services Task Force Lung Cancer Screening Recommendations in Community-Based Health Care Systems.

Importance: The US Preventive Services Task Force (USPSTF) released updated lung cancer screening recommendations in 2021, lowering the screening age from 55 to 50 years and smoking history from 30 to 20 pack-years. These changes are expected to expand screening access to women and racial and ethnic minority groups. Objective: To estimate the population-level changes associated with the 2021 USPSTF expansion of lung cancer screening eligibility by sex, race and ethnicity, sociodemographic factors, and comorbidities in 5 community-based health care systems. Design, Setting, and Participants: This cohort study analyzed data of patients who received care from any of 5 community-based health care systems (which are members of the Population-based Research to Optimize the Screening Process Lung Consortium, a collaboration that conducts research to better understand how to improve the cancer screening processes in community health care settings) from January 1, 2010, through September 30, 2019. Individuals who had complete smoking history and were engaged with the health care system for 12 or more continuous months were included. Those who had never smoked or who had unknown smoking history were excluded. Exposures: Electronic health record-derived age, sex, race and ethnicity, socioeconomic status (SES), comorbidities, and smoking history. Main Outcomes and Measures: Differences in the proportion of the newly eligible population by age, sex, race and ethnicity, Charlson Comorbidity Index, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease diagnosis, and SES as well as lung cancer diagnoses under the 2013 recommendations vs the expected cases under the 2021 recommendations were evaluated using χ2 tests. Results: As of September 2019, there were 341 163 individuals aged 50 to 80 years who currently or previously smoked. Among these, 34 528 had electronic health record data that captured pack-year and quit-date information and were eligible for lung cancer screening according to the 2013 USPSTF recommendations. The 2021 USPSTF recommendations expanded screening eligibility to 18 533 individuals, representing a 53.7% increase. Compared with the 2013 cohort, the newly eligible 2021 population included 5833 individuals (31.5%) aged 50 to 54 years, a larger proportion of women (52.0% [n = 9631]), and more racial or ethnic minority groups. The relative increases in the proportion of newly eligible individuals were 60.6% for Asian, Native Hawaiian, or Pacific Islander; 67.4% for Hispanic; 69.7% for non-Hispanic Black; and 49.0% for non-Hispanic White groups. The relative increase for women was 13.8% higher than for men (61.2% vs 47.4%), and those with a lower comorbidity burden and lower SES had higher relative increases (eg, 68.7% for a Charlson Comorbidity Index score of 0; 61.1% for lowest SES). The 2021 recommendations were associated with an estimated 30% increase in incident lung cancer diagnoses compared with the 2013 recommendations. Conclusions and Relevance: This cohort study suggests that, in diverse health care systems, adopting the 2021 USPSTF recommendations will increase the number of women, racial and ethnic minority groups, and individuals with lower SES who are eligible for lung cancer screening, thus helping to minimize the barriers to screening access for individuals with high risk for lung cancer.

Butterfly declines in protected areas of Illinois: Assessing the influence of two decades of climate and landscape change.

Despite increasing concern regarding broad-scale declines in insects, there are few published long-term, systematic butterfly surveys in North America, and fewer still that have incorporated the influence of changing climate and landscape variables. In this study, we analyzed 20 years of citizen science data at seven consistently monitored protected areas in Illinois, U.S.A. We used mixed models and PERMANOVA to evaluate trends in butterfly abundance, richness, and composition while also evaluating the effects of temperature and land use. Overall butterfly richness, but not abundance, increased in warmer years. Surprisingly, richness also was positively related to percent impervious surface (at the 2 km radius scale), highlighting the conservation value of protected areas in urban landscapes (or alternately, the potential negative aspects of agriculture). Precipitation had a significant and variable influence through time on overall butterfly abundance and abundance of resident species, larval host plant specialists, and univoltine species. Importantly, models incorporating the influence of changing temperature, precipitation, and impervious surface indicated a significant overall decline in both butterfly abundance and species richness, with an estimated abundance decrease of 3.8%/year and richness decrease of 1.6%/year (52.5% and 27.1% cumulatively from 1999 to 2018). Abundance and richness declines were also noted across all investigated functional groups except non-resident (migratory) species. Butterfly community composition changed through time, but we did not find evidence of systematic biotic homogenization, perhaps because declines were occurring in nearly all functional groups. Finally, at the site-level, declines in either richness or abundance occurred at five of seven locations, with only the two largest locations (>300 Ha) not exhibiting declines. Our results mirror those of other long-term butterfly studies predominantly in Europe and North America that have found associations of butterflies with climate variables and general declines in butterfly richness and abundance.

Trends of Colorectal Cancer Incidence in Kazakhstan.

AAMC: Background and objective: Colorectal cancer (CRC) remains one of the most widespread human malignancies. The aim of this study was to study trends of the incidence of CRC in Kazakhstan. Materials and Method: This retrospective study was done using descriptive and analytical methods of oncoepidemiology. Results: During the study period from 2009 to 2018, 28,950 new cases of CRC were recorded, 13,779 (47.6%) cases were allocated to men and 15,171 (52.4%) to women. It was found that the incidence rate of CRC increased from 14.79 (2009) to 17.72 in 2018 and the overall growth was 2.93 cases per 100,000. This increase was due to the age structure ­ ΣΔA=+1.42, the risk of acquiring illness ­ ΣΔR=+1.31, and their combined effect ­ ΣΔRA=+0.20. The component analysis results revealed that the increase in the number of patients with CRC was mainly due to the growth of the population (ΔP=+37.7%), changes in age structure (ΔA=+26.6%), and changes associated with the risk of acquiring illness (ΔR=+24.6%). The number of patients (both sexes) was increasing in many regions largely due to the influence of the age structure of the population. In addition, it was found that growth in the number of patients in most regions, both men and women, was associated primarily with the risk of acquiring illness. Conclusion: The findings of the current study showed increasing trends in the incidence of CRC in all regions of the country. These changes were mainly influenced by demographic factors (population size and age structure), risk of acquiring the disease, and their combined effect.^ieng

Predicting the effects of COVID-19 related interventions in urban settings by combining activity-based modelling, agent-based simulation, and mobile phone data.

Epidemiological simulations as a method are used to better understand and predict the spreading of infectious diseases, for example of COVID-19. This paper presents an approach that combines a well-established approach from transportation modelling that uses person-centric data-driven human mobility modelling with a mechanistic infection model and a person-centric disease progression model. The model includes the consequences of different room sizes, air exchange rates, disease import, changed activity participation rates over time (coming from mobility data), masks, indoors vs. outdoors leisure activities, and of contact tracing. It is validated against the infection dynamics in Berlin (Germany). The model can be used to understand the contributions of different activity types to the infection dynamics over time. It predicts the effects of contact reductions, school closures/vacations, masks, or the effect of moving leisure activities from outdoors to indoors in fall, and is thus able to quantitatively predict the consequences of interventions. It is shown that these effects are best given as additive changes of the reproduction number R. The model also explains why contact reductions have decreasing marginal returns, i.e. the first 50% of contact reductions have considerably more effect than the second 50%. Our work shows that is is possible to build detailed epidemiological simulations from microscopic mobility models relatively quickly. They can be used to investigate mechanical aspects of the dynamics, such as the transmission from political decisions via human behavior to infections, consequences of different lockdown measures, or consequences of wearing masks in certain situations. The results can be used to inform political decisions.